New version for @RISK

15 April, 2002

New version for @RISK

What's New in @RISK 4.5

@RISK 4.5 incorporates many customer-requested features that will provide decision makers even greater insight into the risks - and the opportunities - that affect their organizations. And in today's precarious, unstable business environment, that capability is indispensable. These enhancements include: an Enhanced Define Distribution Window, Alternate Parameters for Distributions, Quick Reports, @RISK Goal Seek, Stress Testing, Advanced Sensitivity Analysis, Pause On Error, and integrated @RISKAccelerator.

Enhanced Define Distribution Window Makes Defining Uncertainty Simple
A number of significant enhancements have been made to the @RISK Define Distribution window. They are:

• a Distribution Palette
• easy definition of distribution cell references
• easier access to overlay graphs
• and intelligent overlay default parameters.

These features make setting up your model easier than ever before.

Distribution Palette: The Define Distribution window has always allowed you to preview distributions with high-resolution graphs before selecting them for your model from the drop-down menu. Now, all editions of @RISK 4.5 give you a pop-up Distribution Palette with thumbnail pictures of all available distribution types. Just click on the thumbnail you wish to use. Choosing distributions couldn't be easier!

Easy Definition of Distribution Cell References: Because @RISK functions are true Excel formulas, you've always been able to use cell references as distribution parameters. Now, you can select cell references or formulas right from the Define Distribution window. Just select the parameter you wish to enter - in this case the mean of a normal distribution - and click a button to choose the cell reference. Pick your cell and click OK. It's that easy!

Easy Access to Overlay Graphs: @RISK has always let you overlay distributions for comparison with the Primary/Overlay icon. Now, the right-click menu in the Define Distribution window has been expanded to allow you to add and remove overlays with ease. You can also switch back and forth between the primary and overlay with the right click menu option.

Intelligent Defaults for Overlays: Overlay graphs now also feature intelligent default parameters. When you select an overlay curve, the parameters of the distribution will default to parameters within the same range as the primary distribution. This means you won't need to manually enter new parameters for your overlay in order to compare two distribution curves. This feature is a real time-saver when you need to compare many distribution types.

Alternate Distribution Parameters for Greater Modeling Flexibility
There may be instances where you wish to use a particular distribution function to describe an uncertain factor, but you don't have enough information to determine the parameters for that distribution. For example, from experience you may know that a normal distribution best describes the net pay of an oil reservoir, but you don't have enough information about the field to know what the mean and standard deviation of the distribution may be. All versions of @RISK 4.5 now allow you to enter parameters as percentile values, giving you even greater modeling flexibility. For example, you can use survey or historical data to estimate the 10th and 90th percentiles of a normal distribution instead of guessing at the mean and standard deviation.

To do this, simply click on the Define Distribution button as before, and select your distribution. Then click the new "Alt" button to bring up the alternate parameters dialog. Enter your percentile values, and @RISK automatically creates a new distribution function for you.

And, just like all @RISK distribution functions, distributions entered using alternate parameters are true Excel functions. You can type them directly into the formula bar, specifying which parameters are standard and which are percentiles. You can enter all parameters as percentiles, use all standard parameters, or any combination of the two.

Quick Reports Speed Up Results Preparation
All versions of @RISK 4.5 now give you one-step, preformatted reports that summarize all of your critical risk analysis results. With a single click, you can generate a one-page report containing a histogram, cumulative curve, tornado diagram, and summary statistics of your simulation results. Reports are produced in native Excel format, all set up and ready to print.

After the simulation, get a Quick Report by simply right clicking on the output you are interested in from the @RISK Results Window. A moment later the report appears in a new worksheet. A look at print preview shows that it is formatted to fit on one page.

This feature is invaluable for situations where you need to produce fast, reliable, easy-to-interpret evidence to back up a course of action. Quick Reports are also great in industries like securities where risk conditions constantly change and succinct, updated analyses are frequently needed.

@RISK Goal Seek Finds Your Targets
Available in @RISK 4.5 Professional and Industrial, @RISK Goal Seek lets you find the value of an input that leads to a desired simulation result. @RISK Goal Seek will be familiar to users of Excel's Goal Seek, but @RISK uses multiple simulations - not deterministic spreadsheet recalculations like Excel - to get results. You set the target value or the goal for a simulation statistic and then tell @RISK Goal Seek which input to adjust in order to achieve your goal. @RISK Goal Seek uses multiple simulations to determine the input value that achieves your goal!

@RISK Goal Seek gives you control over many different options that can affect the success and quality of the solution. You can control the maximum and minimum values of your adjustable input cell, and specify the maximum number of simulations run. You can also dictate how close the actual solution must be to your target goal. Or, you can go with the logical defaults for all parameters. Whichever you choose, @RISK Goal Seek is flexible enough to meet your needs.

Stress Analysis Shows Different Scenarios Instantly
@RISK Stress Analysis allows you analyze the effects of stressing @RISK probability distributions. You may now control the values sampled from a distribution - that is, you may stress the distribution. Simply specify the percentile values between which samples are drawn during simulation. By specifying extreme ranges of a given input, you can see how different situations would affect your bottom line. Stress Analysis also allows you to stress your model by substituting an entirely new distribution for an existing distribution in your model. Instantly test various scenarios without changing your model! Stress Analysis is included with the Professional and Industrial editions of @RISK 4.5.

@RISK gives you a number of options to control your Stress Analysis with. You can stress each input in its own simulation, or you can stress them all in a single simulation. The Reports section lets you choose which reports and graphs to be generated upon completion of the stressed simulations. You can view a Summary report, a Box-Whisker Plot, Comparison Graphs, Histograms, and Cumulative Distribution Functions. These reports may be in new workbooks or in the active workbook. A baseline simulation can also be run without any stressed distributions before you run your stressed simulation.

Advanced Sensitivity Analysis Puts You in Control
@RISK Professional and Industrial's Advanced Sensitivity Analysis allows you to determine the effects of inputs on an output you select. Unlike the standard @RISK sensitivity analysis, which only analyzes the effects of input distribution functions, inputs can now be any value or any @RISK distribution function in your model. Advanced Sensitivity Analysis lets you specify any number of distribution functions or static worksheet cells to vary, and lets you control how they are varied. @RISK then runs any number of simulations (hundreds or thousands if necessary!) - one at each possible input value - and tracks how your outputs statistics change. Available reports include Summary Statistic Report, Box-Whisker plots, Input Graphs, a Spider Graph, Percent Change plot, and Tornado diagram.

Enhanced Pause on Error for Accurate Error Tracking
All editions of @RISK 4.5 include an enhanced Pause On Error feature in the Simulation Settings dialog. With Pause On Error, @RISK scans your output cells during a simulation for any invalid results. Every output is scanned during each iteration of a simulation. If an error is detected, the Pause On Error dialog appears so you can determine the source of the error. You then have the options of continuing with or canceling your simulation.

Integrated @RISKAccelerator for Your Largest Simulations
@RISK 4.5 Industrial now enables you to use all available CPUs within a single machine to process simulations. By integrating the advanced parallel-processing technology of @RISKAccelerator, @RISK Industrial will greatly reduce run times of your largest and most complex simulations. Simulation speed will increase in nearly direct proportion to the number of CPUs used. In industries such as stocks and commodities where market conditions are complex and ever-changing, this will be especially valuable.

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